Because I think there is something going on.įor my money, pundits are underplaying the likelihood of a Labour majority at the next election.Īnd the reason for that? Because they are using the 2019 election as their baseline.Ī Labour majority would take a historic swing - a Blair-like swing - just to scrape over the line. I'm going to put my neck on the line here. And Conservative MPs are losing their seats. So, I am going to read into by-elections - particularly when people tell me not to.įrom Tamworth to Mid Bedfordshire, Rutherglen to Somerton and Frome, voters are sending a message. If you should always ignore the message from by-elections, why did the PM seemingly change his entire net zero strategy after his unexpected win in ULEZ hating Uxbridge? Read more from our political reporter Jennifer Scott below:ĭon't read too much into by-elections, we are always told. " I am committed to delivering on the priorities of the British people." "It is important to remember the context - midterm by-elections are always difficult for an incumbent government and of course there were also local factors at play here. worked very hard and I know they will continue to be great local champions in their communities. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the results showed his party could "now win anywhere" and that former Tory voters were switching allegiances at the ballot box.īut the prime minister insisted the "context" was everything, telling broadcasters: "Obviously disappointing results and not least because our candidates. Rishi Sunak has defended the Conservatives after two by-election losses overnight, claiming mid-term polls are "always difficult" and "local factors" were at play.Īs we have been reporting, the party lost their seats in both Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire in the early hours of Friday morning, as Labour overturned two huge Conservative majorities to deal a double blow to the government. Four swings above 20 points is the same sort of performance Blair saw before his 1997 triumph "So we’re getting the spread across the country we need."Īnd when it comes to the patterns, the by-election wins are building up a picture that points to a Labour majority. "We’re winning in Scotland, the red wall, Conservative shires and the East Mids ," said one senior Labour figure on Friday. It is not just the places that Labour are winning, but the patterns in voter trends. This is because the Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth wins point to a pattern over recent by-elections that led up to the Labour landslide of 1997. Then came the pandemic, Partygate, Liz Truss’s disastrous 45 days - and now the man who was meant to be Labour’s Kinnock has morphed into its next Blair. He was there to do the hard yards, likely lose an election, and hand over to a successor to enjoy the spoils of his toil. Like Neil Kinnock back in the 1980s, Sir Keir’s task was to knock the party back into shape and detoxify a badly damaged Labour brand. When he took over as Labour leader in 2020, Keir Starmer was sitting on the worst election defeat for the party since 1945.
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